NAPCO Security Technologies — Copper Sunset Investment Thesis
An equity research initiation on NAPCO Security Technologies (NASDAQ: NSSC) for Research & Investment Securities Emory (RISE), concluding with a BUY rating and a $57 price target — roughly 24% implied upside from the $45.90 share price at the time of the spring 2026 initiation. The thesis centers on AT&T's decommissioning of its copper POTS network by year-end 2029, which forces millions of commercial fire and burglar-alarm accounts onto cellular reporting. NAPCO's StarLink radio is the dominant code-compliant replacement, generating roughly 91% gross-margin recurring service revenue for every unit installed.
Role Analyst on the NAPCO coverage team — authored the StarLink copper-retirement catalyst thesis and contributed to the 5-year DCF and public-comparables valuation behind the $57 target.
Sell-side models stop at 2027 and miss the full StarLink demand ramp through 2029 — from AT&T-dependent buildings alone, before Verizon and T-Mobile carriers eventually follow. A regulatory-moat product (NFPA 72, UL 864 certified) bolted to a 91%-margin recurring-revenue stream.
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